• Development Intelligence

Everyone calm down – 5 reasons why Corbyn won’t be PM

David Hunt / CC by 2.0

The Maybot has survived but is not safe.  So let’s just assume for a moment that the Tories do not completely implode in the immediate future, which might seem like a brave bet after the last week but not a completely unreasonable one.  The DI team has said for some time that we have seen ‘peak Corbyn’.  Here are the 5 reasons why Jezza won’t be PM:

1. The General Election won’t be until 2022

The Tories will do anything and everything not to have a General Election until then.  We can ignore the polls until three months before Election Day (after all they told us that the Maybot was on for a 100 seat majority for months and months).  And remember we now live in the age of the Fixed Term Parliament Act 2011 – you can thank Cleggy’s Lib Dems for that – and thus there is little ability for Labour to force an election upon us.  And even if they try, there will always be a DUP deal available for the Tories (at a price).  So the most likely scenario, whatever happens to the Maybot, is a General Election in 2022.

2. Brits don’t elect radicals

Let’s assume that Corby lasts until 2022 (or another hard left clone should he keel over or be ousted before then).  What we are certain of is Labour’s agenda will continue to move further to the left, looking more radical and more unaffordable by the week.  History has shown us time and again that if you move to the political fringe, the British electorate won’t vote you into power viz Foot, Hague, Miliband etc.

3. Internal Labour strife

Stand by for much more Labour internal warfare before 2022.  Hard left control.  Deselections.  Battles over Brexit policy.  A fight over the next manifesto.  Much more bloodletting in Labour is still to come.  The Tories are currently under the media microscope but Labour are all over the shop too.

4. 2022 party leaders

The Maybot will not be contesting 2022.  Our best guess is that if she is ousted in the short-term, this is likely to give rise to an interim caretaker leader – David Davis anyone? – to see them through the Brexit process.  So the leadership proposition in 2022 is likely to be Jezza (then aged 73) or St Vince of Twickers (then aged 79) or quite probably a new, youthful, 40-something Tory PM from the 2010 intake who is by then delivering Brexit.

5. 2022 campaign

The 2022 campaign will be very different from this June’s.  The Tories will inevitably run a better election campaign.  For Corby, even with (a) a shocking Tory campaign, (b) a hapless automaton as Tory leader, (c) a ‘yoof’ vote bribed with a ‘free university education’ offer which has now been found out and (d) millions of protest voters loaning their votes, all the fabled Corbyn surge could actually muster was….four more seats than Gordon Brown achieved in 2010, considered at that time to be a terrible defeat.  All those political stars are very unlikely to align like that again.  In fact it will be worse for Labour because a chunk of those that voted for them in June were protest voters who believed Corby couldn’t win.  They are unlikely to have that view in 2022.

So hold the faith.  Things are dire.  But Corby is not going to be in Downing Street any time soon is our best guess.