• Development Intelligence

EU Elections – UK analysis: Leave wins

Stephen West - CC-by-2.5

So we’ve had our second referendum then. Leave won. Yup, you read that right. Despite the silly Lib Dem/Remoaner/media spin that Remain won – call it ‘news maths’ or ‘comparing apples and pears’ – here’s how the numbers actually stacked up:

  • Hard Brexit – 35% (Brexit Party, UKIP)

  • Soft Brexit – 23% (Con, Lab)

  • Remain – 40% (Lib Dem, Green, ChangeUK, SNP, PC)

So in comparison with the 2016 referendum result (Leave 52%, Remain 48%) there is a clear swing away from Remain to Leave and a toughening of attitude amongst Leavers about how hard they want their Brexit. But that is not what you’ll read in the media of course which always misses the truly meaningful impact of every election result, preferring to report the ‘sugar rush’ of the individual parties’ results wrapped up in each party’s spin.

(For the record, the DI team is very Remain heavy, so we are not spinning for our politics here, just calling it as it is).

Once again, politicians have learned the hard lesson that voters don’t like not being listened to and don’t like unnecessary elections. And we will see all this played out again on 6 June at the Peterborough Parliamentary by-election, which is an historically Leave constituency, and where the Brexit Party was miles ahead of all the other parties last Thursday. Standby for the Brexit Party’s first MP.

For Mr Farangitis, this is his biggest success, albeit it was a little less than the polls were predicting. Creating a political party from nothing, building an infrastructure, selecting candidates, attracting funding, running a campaign and coming first, ending up as the largest single political party in the European Parliament, all in under six weeks. Say what you will but that’s quite an achievement. Just ask Chuka Umanna and ChangeUK.

For the Tories, the big lesson they will hear is that they must deliver Brexit and not be afraid of no deal. Watch their leadership candidates pivot in that direction.

For Labour, they will continue the internal battle between the Cobynite Brexiteers and the Watsonite Remoaners, the latter pushing very hard for Labour to adopt a clear Remain position, whilst their calls for a second referendum have somewhat self-deludedly not quietened down despite the stats above. (The problem of living in your own echo chamber?) The official Opposition, nine years in, is still going backwards and now having another bout of leadership heebie-jeebies when they should be miles ahead and nailing it.