• Development Intelligence

Brexit predictions

The DI team know how our clients and colleagues just love to quote back our failed political predictions at us (and never remember the many more we actually got right). But there seem to be three pretty clear guesstimates we can probably all agree upon:

Brexit deal – Despite the on the bus/off the bus Brexit deal progress breathlessly reported on a weekly basis by the media, depending on which side has last briefed them, Brexit will happen, because all sides need it to happen, but it will be a classic EU deal: five minutes past the umpteenth missed deadline, in the middle of the night in Brussels, dripping with fudge and Nigel Farage will denounce it immediately. Looking likely for 13-14 December.

The Maybot – Will be dead by Summer 2019. She will be no more. She will have ceased to be. She will have expired and gone to meet her maker. Bereft of life, she’ll rest in peace. And our best estimate is still that Sajid Javid will be the next PM, for all you Boris fantasists out there.

Labour split – Once Brexit is delivered, the Labour moderates currently trying to prevent it - who are not tribal loyalists - will likely split from Labour. One by one they have been peeling away from Corbyn for some time: Jamie Reed to the nuclear industry, 13 of them ‘retiring’ at the 2017 General Election including Andy Burnham to the Greater Manchester mayoralty and Tristan Hunt to the V&A, and since then we’ve had Heidi Alexander to the GLA, John Woodcock to ‘independence’, and now Frank Field to reasonably inevitable retirement. Once their hated Brexit is certain, and with almost inevitable deselection hanging over them once the Boundary Commission reports, Labour moderates will have no choice but to split away. For Labour moderates it is now not a question of stay or go, but of jump or be pushed. We’ll all become bored by allusions to the Gang of Four, “breaking the mould” and the SDP. But it will, finally, very likely happen. A significant number of moderate Labour MPs just can’t stomach the idea of campaigning for ‘Jezza the Anti-Semite’ to be PM.