• Development Intelligence

Boundary changes – Good for Tories, really bad for Labour

The Local Government Commission, what used to be called the Boundary Commission, is publishing its updated report on reducing Parliamentary constituencies from 650 down to 600 this week. The Tories now seem certain they can deliver a Tory/DUP majority for this to be voted through Parliament. The received wisdom is that this will deliver around 23-ish seats for the Tories at the next General Election. The inbuilt bias for Labour, with currently a greater number of much smaller constituencies, will have been corrected. So far, so good for the Tories.

But of course the really bad news for Labour is much more significant. With many if not all constituencies being affected, this will open the doors for the Corbynites to ‘re-select’ Labour MPs. We are already seeing Momentum coming forward with their proposals  to fix the process in their supporters’ favour. After Brexit inevitability and the pain of this summer’s anti-Semitism debate, this will be the straw that breaks the back for many sitting moderate Labour MPs and will be the death knell for Labour as we have known it. For Labour moderates it is now not a question of stay or go, but of jump or be pushed.