• Development Intelligence

And the next Tory PM is…

UK Parliament / CC by 2.0

As we’ve been telling our esteemed clients for some time, the Maybot is dead as soon as the Brexit deal is done. Her card is marked, her graveyard plot purchased, her coffin ordered. It’s as simple as that. She has been allowed to do the painful heavy lifting of the Brexit deal, and then, as the Tories do so efficiently and Labour so badly, she will be handed the revolver and the glass of whisky, and walked by the Chief Whip down the well-trodden road to the political graveyard like Maggie, Major, Hague, IDS, Howard and Cameron before her.

But that’s old news. The new news happened on the last day of April. Sajid Javid, previously written off in the 2017 post-election reshuffle, has been appointed (sorry) ‘anointed’ as our next PM; well, that’s assuming that a Home Office scandal doesn’t swallow him up beforehand, as they so often do. Why are we so sure that Javid is ‘The Man’? Here’s the logic:

  1. First, you need to understand the rules of the game.  Tory MPs select the two names to go forward to the 100,000 or so old aged pensioners who make up the Tory Party membership.  So, in reality, the only thing that matters is what Tory MPs think of you.

  2. Thus, due to their quite mad/bad behaviour during the Brexit referendum and the most recent leadership contest, the old guard are simply all dead to the majority of Tory MPs.  (They may not think so - like the Black Knight in The Holy Grail, what politician ever thinks they aren’t still in with a chance - but trust us they are).  Thus the elderly beasts are all slain: BoJo, Gove, Hammond, Davis, Fox, Grayling…all dead.

  3. The Parliamentary Party’s mood is very much for a ‘clean skin’, a younger, 2010 election cohort, telegenic, ‘modern looking’ Tory Party candidate.

  4. However, some of those candidates have already rather painfully impaled themselves: Rudd (too much Windrush), Patel (too much Israel), Crabb (too much sexting).

  5. So the candidates left are: Hinds (Education), Raab (Planning), Hunt (Health), Williamson (Defence), Javid (Home Office).  There are some others but they are either too junior right now (Stewart, Frazer, Fernandes) or have not even had their first ministerial job yet (Cleverly, Mercer, Sunak, Tugendhat).

So, of the available candidates, how do they look?

  • (a)  Hinds (Education) – no, us too.  Is he a real person, does anyone actually know him?

  • (b)  Raab (Planning) – not been around long enough to position himself effectively yet.

  • (c)  Hunt (Health) – the curse of the NHS, like chemo, just way too toxic.

  • (d)  Williamson (Defence) – cheesed off too many Tory MPs with his uber fast rise and then the rest when he was bullying them as Chief Whip.

Which leaves….Javid. A perfect candidate on paper: son of immigrants, state school educated, business friendly, lots of Government experience, achingly PC, a real problem for Labour, an attractor of working class, ethnic, non-traditional Tory votes. Clearly the frontrunner. It’s his for the taking.

You heard it here first.